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| Home > Publications database > Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz VI – Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030 - Advances in Systems Analysis 5 |
| Home > Publications database > Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz VI – Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030 - Advances in Systems Analysis 5 |
| Book | FZJ-2014-01760 |
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2014
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag
Jülich
ISBN: 978-3-89336-932-4
Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/8076
Abstract: In the “Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection VI” project the greenhouse gas emissions for Germany are assessed based on model analyses for detailed specific energy and climate policy instruments.In the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) all measures which have been implemented by 8 July 2011 (and those which entered into force for the first time or were changed after 1.1.2005) are taken into consideration. Compared to the reference year of 1990, a 34 % reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases falling under the Kyoto Protocol4 is achieved by 2020. By 2030 the emissions are reduced by 44 %. Over half f of the emission reductions originate from policies that target the energy conversion sectors, most notably from electricity production. In terms of the instrument-specific effects, the largest share of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions stems from instruments geared to saving electricity (e.g. the emission trading scheme (ETS))5, building rehabilitation programs, the promotion of renewable energies in electricity and heat production, (European) efficiency standards for passenger cars and the use of bio fuels. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases by 9 % by 2020 and by 19 % by 2030 compared to 20086. The contribution made by renewable energies to the primary energy supply approximately doubles by 2020; by 2030 the contribution increases by approx. a factor of 2.5. Overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases from approx. 9 % in 2008 to 19.5 % in 2020 and to more than 27 % in 2030. Alongside the energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, substantial emission reductions in the Current Policy Scenario are achieved by measures and developments in industrial processes and waste management.In the Energy Transformation Scenario (ETS) additional measures which go beyond the ones described above are taken into account. These additional measures bring about an emission reduction of approx. 42 % by 2020 and of more than 58 % by 2030 (compared to 1990). More than half of the emission reductions achieved stem from the energy conversion sectors and, above all, electricity production.The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors.Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030.
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